Short answer: the reverse Martingale, also called Paroli, is much gentler than the classic Martingale. It never chases losses, so it rarely wipes out a bankroll. But it doesn't beat roulette. In 100,000 simulated sessions it ended in profit about a third of the time and lost 2.7% of everything wagered, exactly the house edge.
How Paroli works
- Bet one unit on an even-money bet such as red.
- If you win, let the stake and winnings ride: your next bet is double.
- After three wins in a row, take the profit and start again with one unit.
- If you lose at any point, go back to one unit.
It's the mirror image of Martingale, which doubles after losses. Paroli only ever risks money it has just won, so a losing streak costs you one unit per bet, not an exploding stake.
The math of one Paroli cycle
With a €1 base bet, a cycle either completes three wins (bets of €1, €2 and €4) and banks +€7, or stops at the first loss and costs −€1.
- Three reds in a row happen 11.51% of the time on a European wheel, about 1 cycle in 8.7.
- So on average a cycle returns 0.1151 × €7 − 0.8849 × €1 = −€0.079.
- An average cycle puts about €2.92 on the table, so the loss is 2.70% of the money bet: the house edge, as always.
The payout of a completed cycle (7 to 1) is a little lower than its true odds (about 7.7 to 1). Paroli can't escape that gap, it just packages it differently.
We simulated 100,000 sessions
Using the same engine as our free roulette simulator: bets on red, €500 table maximum, a fair wheel, 100,000 sessions per row.
| Setup | Sessions in profit | Lost whole bankroll | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paroli, €1 base, €100 bankroll, 200 spins | 35.7% | 0.0% | −€9.12 |
| Paroli, €1 base, €100 bankroll, 1,000 spins | 22.5% | 29.1% | −€41.67 |
| Paroli, €5 base, €100 bankroll, 200 spins | 29.6% | 58.5% | −€30.74 |
| Paroli, €1 base, €100 bankroll, 200 spins, American wheel | 24.9% | 0.1% | −€17.65 |
And for comparison, same wheel and bankroll, €1 base, 200 spins:
| Strategy | Sessions in profit | Lost whole bankroll | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat €1 on red | 32.5% | 0.0% | −€5.42 |
| Paroli | 35.7% | 0.0% | −€9.12 |
| Martingale | 44.5% | 50.7% | −€14.12 |
What the numbers show
- Paroli is far safer than Martingale. Over 200 spins it never wiped out a €100 bankroll, while Martingale did so in half of all sessions.
- It loses more than flat betting, not less. Letting wins ride means more money on the table (about €338 over 200 spins instead of €200), and the house edge takes 2.7% of all of it.
- Bigger base bets change everything. With a €5 base bet on a €100 bankroll, the small losses add up fast and 58.5% of sessions lose everything.
- Long sessions grind you down. Over 1,000 spins only 22.5% of sessions finish ahead.
- The wheel matters more than the system. On an American wheel the average loss nearly doubles.
Why Paroli feels good: when you do hit three in a row, you win 7 units while only ever risking 1 of your own. That makes for memorable moments, but they don't happen often enough to cover the steady trickle of one-unit losses.
If you enjoy playing Paroli
- Keep the base bet small, around 1% of your session bankroll.
- Play European or French roulette, never American.
- Decide in advance when you'll stop, ahead or behind. See how to set a roulette budget.
- Treat any profit as luck, and keep it.
Want to see it for yourself? Choose "Paroli" in the roulette simulator and run 1,000 sessions.